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☆ Dollar eases as Fed clues awaited; bitcoin hits 2-year high
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. one hundred dollar bills are being shown in this picture illustration taken in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Dec. 15, 2023. The U.S. dollar drifted weaker on Monday, pressured by lower Treasury yields, as traders waited for more crucial economic data for fresh clues on the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The U.S. dollar drifted weaker on Monday, pressured by lower Treasury yields, as traders waited for more crucial economic data for fresh clues on the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The euro was firm following Friday's 0.33% advance, with a European Central Bank, or ECB, policy decision looming on Thursday. That also weighed on Treasury yields, removing additional support for the dollar, with the benchmark 10-year yield sliding as low as 4.178% for the first time in two weeks.

Persons: Bias, Jerome Powell's, Kazuo Ueda, Hajime Takata, Christine Lagarde's, Bitcoin Organizations: U.S, European Central Bank, Bank of, Treasury, Congress, Westpac, ECB Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina

☆ Dollar hovers near 6-week high on Fed view; yen edges up after BOJ
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Japanese yen , though, ticked higher as expectations rose for a stimulus exit as soon as March, following hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan on Tuesday. "We have seen ECB (European Central Bank) officials push back on rate cut expectations as well, in line with the Federal Reserve." The dollar declined 0.17% to 148.085 yen, after swinging from as low as 146.99 and as high as 148.70 on Tuesday. The Bank of Canada meets on policy on Wednesday, and is expected to leave its key overnight rate unchanged at a 22-year high of 5%. Traders have unwound bullish positions built up in anticipation of U.S. approval of the country's first spot bitcoin exchange traded fund (ETF).

Persons: Mary Daly, Christopher Waller, James Kniveton, Christine Lagarde's, Sterling, Kazuo Ueda, China's, cryptocurrency, Bitcoin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, U.S, San Francisco Fed, ECB, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, Bloomberg, Traders Locations: U.S

☆ Euro zone inflation tumble pits ECB against markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Inflation has dropped quickly towards the ECB's 2% target from levels above 10% just a year ago but policymakers have cautioned against excessive optimism. The rapid inflation slowdown puts the euro zone central bank and investors on a collision course as the two appear to see greatly different paths ahead, both for consumer prices and ECB interest rates. "And if the recent trends in inflation and growth continue then 2024 will be the year when the ECB implements a pirouette in monetary policy." "The market is therefore right to start looking at rate cuts for 2024. Some economists argue that modelling current inflation is exceptionally difficult because corporate profits are the main driver, not wages as in normal bouts of rapid inflation.

Persons: Sarah Meyssonnier, Kamil Kovar, Yannis Stournaras, Fabio Panetta, Panetta, Christine Lagarde's, Bert Colijn, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: REUTERS, ECB, Moody's, Bank of Italy, ING, Thomson Locations: Paris, France, FRANKFURT

The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, slipped 0.1% to 103.37 and was headed for a monthly loss of more than 3%, its worst performance since November 2022. The market is also eyeing a rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Chinese purchasing managers' index (PMI) data. In other currencies, the euro was little changed against the dollar at $1.0937 . Against the yen, the dollar fell 0.4% to 148.885 yen . The dollar extended losses after data showed U.S. new home sales fell more than expected in October, dropping 5.6% to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 679,000 units.

Persons: ECB's Lagarde, Helen, Christine Lagarde's, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, Toby Chopra, Mark Potter, Paul Simao Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Monex USA, Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of New, Australian, greenback, New, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington, OPEC, Australia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, New Zealand, China, New York, London, Singapore

☆ Morning Bid: Watching what the ECB giveth
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Vidya Ranganathan. The forward-looking flash November PMIs due out globally should help investors assess recession risks and how quickly rate cuts will begin. Interest rate futures show the market is pricing in rate cuts by April and more aggressively so in June . Later on Thursday, Sweden's central bank will announce its latest policy decision in what is expected to be a very close call on whether to hike again. A Reuters poll showed 10 of 19 economists looked for a rise, while market pricing is leaning against a move.

Persons: Vidya Ranganathan, haven't, Mario Centeno, Joachim Nagel's, Christine Lagarde's, Jeremy Hunt's, Van Haaren, ECB's Isabel Schnabel, Robert Holzmann, Francois Villeroy de, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Vidya, European Central, PMI, ECB, Reuters, Ubezpieczen SA, Virgin Money, Bank of France, Thomson Locations: Japan, United States, Britain, U.S, Sweden's

☆ ECB breaks record streak of rate hikes as economy weakens
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. REUTERS/Heiko Becker/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsATHENS, Oct 26 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank broke the longest streak of interest rate hikes in its 25-year history on Thursday, saying the latest data continued to point to inflation slowly coming down to its 2% target. "The Governing Council’s past interest rate increases continue to be transmitted forcefully into financing conditions," the ECB said. This sharp policy tightening is leaving a mark on the economy, with data earlier this week showing weak credit creation and economic activity. ($1 = 0.9480 euros)Reporting By Leftheris Papadimas Writing by Francesco Canepa Editing by Catherine EvansOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Heiko Becker, Christine Lagarde's, Francesco Canepa, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Rights, ECB, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany

In the United States, the manufacturing sector pulled out of a five-month contraction on a pickup in new orders, and services activity accelerated modestly amid signs of easing inflationary pressures. HEADACHE FOR THE ECBIn the euro zone, business activity drooped as demand fell in a broad-based downturn across the region, causing the bloc to enter the fourth quarter on the wrong foot and suggesting it may slip into recession. "The flash PMIs mark a poor start to October for the euro zone, especially after showing some early signs of recovery in September," said Rory Fennessy at Oxford Economics. Suggesting a recession is well underway in Germany, Europe's largest economy, business activity contracted there for a fourth straight month as the downturn in manufacturing was matched by a renewed decline in services, its PMI showed. In France, the euro zone's second-largest economy, business activity remained in contraction territory in October, PMI data showed, improving just slightly from September's near three-year low.

Persons: Rebecca Cook, Chris Williamson, Christine Lagarde's, Rory Fennessy, Williamson, Ajay Banga, Dan Burns, Jonathan Cable, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Ford Rouge Electric Vehicle, REUTERS, P Global, Composite, Federal, Commerce Department, Reuters, P, P Global Market Intelligence, P Global PMI, September's, European Central Bank, Oxford Economics, PMI, European Union, Bank of, Palestinian, Hamas, Thomson Locations: Dearborn , Michigan, U.S, United States, joblessness, Germany, Europe's, France, September's, Britain, Gaza, Ukraine

☆ European shares rise as fresh Chinese measures lift mood, tech stocks rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The German share price index DAX graph is pictured as the German index celebrates its 35th birthday at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, August 15, 2023. By 0710 GMT, the pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) added 0.7% after posting its first weekly gain in four. Technology stocks (.SX8P) advanced 1.5%, their first climb in three sessions, tracking an overnight rally on Wall Street. Meanwhile, interest rate expectations in the euro zone remained tepid following the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech late on Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium. Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Dhanya Ann ThoppilOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Hermes, Christine Lagarde's, Shashwat Chauhan, Dhanya Ann Thoppil Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, Beijing, Technology, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, China, United Kingdom, Bengaluru

☆ Gold eases as U.S. dollar jumps, spotlight on Powell's speech
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Spot gold eased 0.2% to $1,913.90 per ounce by 0323 GMT, while U.S. gold futures shed 0.3% to $1,942. "The stronger U.S. dollar is clearly acting as a headwind for gold." The U.S. dollar raced for its sixth straight weekly gain, making bullion more expensive for overseas buyers. SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell further on Thursday and were at their lowest since January 2020. Palladium was set for a second straight weekly decline.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Christine Lagarde's, Matt Simpson Organizations: U.S ., Federal, Treasury, European Central Bank, Trust Locations: U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ ECB raises key rate to historic high, keeps options open
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FRANKFURT, July 26 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to a historic high on Thursday and kept its options open on whether more increases will be needed to bring down inflation against a worsening economic backdrop. "The Governing Council’s future decisions will ensure that the key ECB interest rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels," the ECB said. In its June statement, the ECB had said rates would "be brought" to sufficiently restrictive levels, implying more rises. The ECB has now increased borrowing costs by a combined 4.25 percentage points in a year, its fastest pace on record. Both facilities have been little used as the banking system is still awash with cash from a decade of monetary stimulus by the ECB.

Persons: Christine Lagarde's, Francesco Canepa, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT

☆ Morning Bid: The ECB won't throw a curve ball
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

It's a given the ECB will deliver its eighth straight rate hike of 25 bps, and confirm that the pace of quantitative tightening will pick up. They might hike again in July and September, is the broad view, putting the inflation battle ahead of the growth slowdown. Macro forecasts are also due but are unlikely to change ECB President Christine Lagarde's determination and view that "there is no clear evidence that underlying inflation has peaked". Reuters GraphicsNever say never, but ING believes markets are "priced to perfection" for the ECB, with at least two rate rises, including Thursday's, in the price. In Asia, Japan's stock market (.N225) continued to scale fresh 33-year highs, while China's economy continued to underwhelm.

Persons: Vidya Ranganathan, It's, Christine Lagarde's, Jerome Powell, Hafize Gaye, Bank of England's Jon Cunliffe, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Vidya, European, ECB, ING, Fed, Bank of England's, Thomson Locations: U.S, Asia, China, Turkey, Brussels

☆ ECB raises rates to 22-year high and signals more to come
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FRANKFURT, June 15 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the eighth successive time as expected on Thursday and signalled further policy tightening, as it battles high inflation. "The Governing Council’s future decisions will ensure that the key ECB interest rates will be brought to levels sufficiently restrictive to achieve a timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target," the ECB said after lifting the deposit rate by 25 basis points to a 22-year high of 3.5%. But the labour market remains tight, nominal wage growth is quick and underlying price pressures, particularly for services, appear to be stubbornly high. Prior to Thursday's decision, markets had priced in another 25 basis point ECB rate hike in July or September and saw a moderate chance of another move later this year, perhaps in September or October. Attention now turns to ECB President Christine Lagarde's 1245 GMT news conference.

Persons: Christine Lagarde's, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Staff, U.S . Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT

☆ Shares rise, dollar weakens on bank sector fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SINGAPORE, May 5 (Reuters) - Asian stocks rose, the dollar eased and gold hovered around its record highs on Friday, as jittery investors remained nervous about the U.S. banking sector following another rout in shares of regional lenders. Wall Street ended lower on Thursday after Los Angeles-based PacWest Bancorp's (PACW.O) move to explore strategic options deepened fears about the health of U.S. lenders as pressure grows on regulators to take more steps to shore up the country's banking sector. Shares of U.S. regional banks sank this week in the wake of the collapse of First Republic Bank over the weekend that has brought back fears of a financial sector crisis. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised interest rates by 25 basis points, but hinted that its marathon hiking cycle may be ending. China shares (.SSEC) rose 0.21%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (.HSI) was up 0.6%, helping lift the region's shares.

The narrowing rate differentials between the U.S. and Europe, as markets price in more European rate increases than in the U.S., has been boosting European currencies in recent months. The Fed has guided markets away from the possibility of rate cuts this year, though markets are pricing them in nonetheless. The European Central Bank announces its rate decision later in the day. "So I think central banks, including the Fed, are at or very near the peak in their cash rates." The Norwegian crown took a short trip after Norway's central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected.

☆ ECB confronts a cold reality: companies are cashing in on inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Francesco Canepa | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

"It's clear that profit expansion has played a larger role in the European inflation story in the last six months or so," said Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management. "The ECB has failed to justify what it's doing in the context of a more profit-focused inflation story." Instead, national accounts and earnings reports from listed companies are being used as proxies to paint the inflation picture. "The main story of the risks going forward is still that there's a looming wage-price spiral which should make the central bank even more aggressive in hiking interest rates." loadingloadingEven inside the ECB, labour representatives demanding higher pay for central bank staff have distanced themselves from what they described as the institution's "anti-worker bias".

☆ Davos 2023: ECB's Villeroy says inflation battle not yet won, rate guidance stands
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 18 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank has yet to win its fight against sky high inflation so its guidance for big rate hikes in the months ahead remains valid, French central bank chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Wednesday. "We must stay the course in our battle against inflation; it's not yet won," Villeroy told a World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting panel in Davos. Villeroy appeared to dismiss this, saying that ECB President Christine Lagarde's guidance for a 50 basis point move in February and possibly at subsequent meetings remain valid. Headline inflation could peak in the first half of 2023, followed by underlying price growth, and overall inflation could fall to the ECB's 2% target by late 2024 or early 2025, he said. Villeroy was also relatively optimistic on growth, arguing that a recession, part of the ECB's baseline forecast, could be avoided given recent indicators.

☆ Morning Bid: Hawk-eyed
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's forceful hawkish rhetoric has played Grinch, with little sign yet of a Santa rally as we head towards Christmas and the New Year. And so, investors will parse every inch of economic data coming through in the near term to gauge inflationary pressures and recessionary signals, with flash PMI data from the Eurozone and the UK on deck for the day. Of course, the worry remains on what the audit is likely to reveal, and that has put a lid on gains for these stocks. "Some time away from Twitter is good for the soul," Musk tweeted. loadingKey developments that could influence markets on Friday:Economic events: Nov UK retail sales, Flash PMI data for UK, Eurozone, Sweden's unemployment rate for NovemberReporting by Ankur Banerjee; Editing by Edmund KlamannOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ ECB to start offloading bond holdings in March
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It will do so by not reinvesting part of its maturing bond holdings. More detailed parameters for the reduction will be provided at its February meeting, the ECB said. "The asset purchase programme (APP) portfolio will decline at a measured and predictable pace," the ECB said in a statement. The 3.3 trillion euros of purchases made under the APP account for the bulk of the ECB's debt holdings. Investors will now watch for further details expected at ECB President Christine Lagarde's press conference at 1345 GMT news conference.

☆ Lagarde comments at ECB press conference
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Following are highlights of ECB President Christine Lagarde's comments at a news conference after the policy meeting. And we did not discuss the substantive issues today deliberately because we decided on a lot of issues. FUTURE HIKES"We have acknowledged that more rate (hikes) are in the pipeline, but at what pace and to which level I cannot tell you." ON FUTURE RATE INCREASES"The destination for us is clear, the exact pace will be determined meeting by meeting." HIGHER WAGES"Strong labour markets are likely to support higher wages as is some catch-up in wages to compensate for higher inflation."

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